Sunday, April 18, 2010

Is Christaintiy Dying out? Wht do the Stats show?

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Many atheists seem agree with this idea, it's the fruit of bogus atheist social sciences.

On my board Doxa Forums
Postby Ophir's Gopher on Sat Apr 17, 2010 1:10 am 


I never thought I'd witness it in my lifetime. We're actually witnessing the death of the major fear-based religions like Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. It's fascinating and beautiful to behold these creeds collapsing under the weight of dogmatic fundamentalism and completely untenable perceptions of reality. Pick any Abrahamic religion, and I can explain how it undid itself and why, at least in its current state, it cannot gain back any of the momentum it had. These modes of belief are dying; if they are not dying then they are simply evolving into extremely liberal beliefs that are a vapor of what they once were.

On poster sites an article, from Daily Kos Blog "Beleif in God Pumbits among younger generation."
by Ukit

Sat Apr 17, 2010 at 01:17:48 PM PDT

 In reading the article one can see things are not always what they seem.

that article quotes my Pew study and shows a rise from 90s to the oughts. So it's actually going up for generation X. That's going to be important latter. At this point observe the optimism of atheists in the past have led them to misread studies:

CARM (02/28/2008)

a thread called

"Good News--New Study supports rising tide of non belief!"


The Study in Question is the Pew Forum on Religion and public Life study

Title:

U.S. Religious Land Scape June 28, 2008.



Great news--new study supports the rising tide of Nonbelief

The Pew Center for Religion and the Public Life just came out with a new large poll on religious affiliations in the U.S. http://religions.pewforum.org. Tally up the numbers, and you'll see that Christians make up about 76.8 percent of the U.S. population, and those with no affiliation (atheists, agnostics, don't identify with any religious group but may consider themselves vaguely "spiritual") was 16.1 percent. Another .8 percent said the don't know or refused to answer--since that is not what any God-fearing religious person would say, I would add it to the "No Affilation" side of the ledger. Rounding, we have Christians as 77% and the non-religious at 17%. All other religions are in the low single digits.

The study overall found that people move around quite a bit religiously and a large percentage don't have the same religion as their parents. However, the "no affiliation" group was clearly growing and were losing far few people than they were gaining. The non-belief crowd is like a slow rising flood--there was a time we would have been in the low single digits, but now we are up to 17% overall and are an even higher percentage of the young. With each passing generation, more and more people are considering themselves as non-religious.

In my lifetime, I expect to see this number get up to 25% or more overall, and my kids could see a USA where the majority of Americans are finally secular rather than religious in their world view. Hallelujah!




Despite the positively stated title and the exultation in the closing line, some atheists actually said "no claim has been made."



he's trying to claim atheism at 17% this is such folly. They are assuming affiliation is synonymous with belief in God! So clearly foolish and when one examines the study the breakdown of unaffiliated the actual number given to atheist population in America is 1.6%! they are counting anyone not a Christian as an atheist! He failed to read the decimal.

(for the first page of the study).




This study actually shows atheism shrinking as the research I have done previously indicated it was at 3% of US pop. they have at 1.6%.


I find atheists doing this all the time. I've seen them count all of Buddhism as atheism so they can say they are a major world religion. IF they really believe they are right, why aren't they just content to be right? why do they take such solace in bogus inflation of numbers? Gallop shows more people in Japan are Christian than ever before.

The category of "non affiliated" leaves room for religious belief. but to be fair, he wasn't just ignorant of what decimal points do. The whole category happened to be 16% and the atheists 1.6% so he was going by the category, not taking out the decimal.

still, he should have known.


*Adherents.com = 4% U.S. Pop is Ahtiest


Adherents.com shows Atheists at 0.4% of U.S. Population.


Atheist 1990 adult pop: 902,000 2004= 1,272,986 Percentrage of Pop = 0.4%

a note on this statistical table says:



*Gallup polls show 6% U.S. Pop with 3% error


Gallup organization

finds 6% atheist in U.S. 2008, within 3% margin of error this agrees with the other polls.

May 9-11, 2008.

Which of the following statements comes closest to your belief about God -- you believe in God, you don't believe in God, but you do believe in a universal spirit or higher power, or you don't believe in either? (findings: 6% say Neither, 78% believe in God, 15% beleive in universal spirit, 1% no opinion).



*Pew Study at top = 1.6% U.S. Pop



2004 total population numbers were calculated by multiplying each group's percent of the total adult 2001 population (207,882,353) by the 2004 total population (using the June 1, 2004 U.S. Census Bureau extrapolated estimate of 293,382,953 total Americans). The U.S. Census Bureau total U.S. population estimate for 2000, based on the actual 2000 Census, was: 281,421,906. The U.S. Census Bureau total U.S. population estimate for July 1, 2001 was: 293,655,404. The adult (ages 18 and over) population estimate for July 1, 2001 was: 220,377,406. The total adult population for 2001 used in the 2001 ARIS study (apparently counting only adults aged 21 and over) was: 207,882,353. For 2001 figures, see: 293655404http://www.census.gov/popest/states/asrh/SC-est2004-01.html. This method of extrapolating the 2004 total population of each religious group from the 2001 adult population of each group does not factor in differences in the average number of children per adult for each religious group.




While stats on Christian population have been underrated! New study finds more Christians in Japan than previous thought.

Moe People Claim Christian Faith in Japan

By
Audrey Barrick
audrey@christianpost.com
Sun, Mar. 19 2006 10:24 AM ET


The latest Gallup poll revealed a much higher percentage of Christians in Japan compared to previous surveys, including a surprising high number of teens who claimed the Christian faith.

More People Claim Christian Faith in Japan


Japanese people walk along Omotesando, a fashionable street in Tokyo, March 8, 2006. The latest Gallup poll revealed a much higher percentage of Christians in Japan compared to previous surveys, including a surprising high number of teens who claimed the

In a country where only one percent is Christian among those who claim a faith, findings from one of the most extensive surveys of the country ever taken showed a Christian population of six percent. Meanwhile, the most popular and traditional religions – Buddhism and Shintoism – suffered declines.

Of the 30 percent of adults who claimed to have a religion, 75 percent considered themselves Buddhists, 19 percent Shintoists and 12 percent Christians, according to the Gallup Organization. Japanese youth revealed even more alarming statistics. Of the 20 percent who professed to have a religion, 60 percent called themselves Buddhists, 36 percent Christians and Shintoists.

"These projections mean that seven percent of the total teenage population say they are Christians," said George Gallup Jr. who called the numbers "stunning."

The study - the single largest study ever attempted, according to the social scientists in Japan - examined preteens, teens, young adults, adults and seniors.

"When they saw the design of the questionnaire, Japanese experts argued that the Japanese would never answer the socially delicate and/or the highly personal questions," said Bill McKay, project research director. "However, it was our professional hunch that the Japanese were ready to talk and when they did they told us more than we had asked for. The data is the most revealing look behind the face of Japan and shatters many WWII myths of the Japanese culture."

McKay is also one of the producers of a documentary that is slated for release later this year. The poll was conducted in association with American Trademark Research and MJM Group in 2001 for use in the documentary.

"In my 50 years of polling, there has been no study that I would consider as important as this one, because it provides insight into a fascinating culture," said Gallup.

Delving into more specific attitudes, the poll also found a note of hopelessness in the responses to questions related to morality, spirituality and general views about life.

"And there is little evidence of eternal hope, although a considerable number do believe in some form of life afterlife," noted Gallup. And "there is little belief in 'absolutes,' and this is true across the all-generational groups."

In comparison to teens in the United States, Japanese teens showed a pessimistic outlook on life. Previous studies found that 85 percent of teens in Japan wondered why they existed while 22 percent of U.S. teens had the same thought. Additionally, 13 percent of Japanese teens always see a reason for their being on Earth compared to 76 percent of teens in the U.S, and 11 percent of Japanese teens wished they had never been born while 3 percent of U.S. teens wished the same.

Within an estimated population of 127.4 million in Japan, academics estimate that 20 to 30 percent of adults actively practice a particular faith, but the Agency for Cultural Affairs reported in 2003 that 213,826,700 citizens claimed a religion, according to the U.S. Department of State's latest International Religious Freedom Report.

Postby Metacrock on Sun Apr 18, 2010 8:59 am
from the Pew article about thier study linked in the article Fleet quoted:

http://pewforum.org/Age/Religion-Among-the-Millennials.aspx

Yet in other ways, Millennials remain fairly traditional in their religious beliefs and practices. Pew Research Center surveys show, for instance, that young adults' beliefs about life after death and the existence of heaven, hell and miracles closely resemble the beliefs of older people today. Though young adults pray less often than their elders do today, the number of young adults who say they pray every day rivals the portion of young people who said the same in prior decades. And though belief in God is lower among young adults than among older adults, Millennials say they believe in God with absolute certainty at rates similar to those seen among Gen Xers a decade ago. This suggests that some of the religious differences between younger and older Americans today are not entirely generational but result in part from people's tendency to place greater emphasis on religion as they age.
A Note on Sources
and Methods

This report is based on data from a variety of sources, including Pew Research Center surveys, which are used primarily to compare young adults with older adults today. General Social Surveys and Gallup surveys are used primarily for cohort analyses, which compare young adults today with previous generations when they were in their 20s and early 30s. While the surveys explore similar topics, exact question wording and results vary from survey to survey.

Present-day comparisons are made between adults ages 18-29 and those 30 and older. By contrast, the cohort analyses define generations based on respondents’ year of birth. There is significant - but not complete - overlap between the two approaches. That is, in the present-day analyses, depending on the year of the survey being analyzed, some in the 18-29 age group are actually young members of Generation X (defined here as those born from 1965 to 1980) and not true members of the Millennial Generation (defined here as those born after 1980).

In their social and political views, young adults are clearly more accepting than older Americans of homosexuality, more inclined to see evolution as the best explanation of human life and less prone to see Hollywood as threatening their moral values. At the same time, Millennials are no less convinced than their elders that there are absolute standards of right and wrong. And they are slightly more supportive than their elders of government efforts to protect morality, as well as somewhat more comfortable with involvement in politics by churches and other houses of worship.


It's a big mistake to think that young people represent the same views they will hold in middle age. It's common that their rates of disaffection for traditional affiliation will be higher in youth than in middle age.


Notice on the chart at the bottom of the page on the Pew article it shows the percentages for young people. the total for 18 to 29 is 68%. That's the general Christian category. Meaning all Christian groups taken together. Note: the chart is showing not the percentage of identification but the percentage of young who accept Bible as literal word of God!

Total for over 30 81%

18-20

for Evangelical 22%

Mainline 12%

30+ 27

19 respectively.

The older group always has a higher level of identification to the group. Look at the chart it's true across the board.

What we see above shows that Generation X is increasing (somewhat) it's identification, we find that the older generations are always more identified with an institution or tradition than young people. young  people in America still possess the core values necessary to Christainity.

Notice that the charts in the article from the blog were not about the percentage identification but the percentage of young people believing the Bible is literal and inerrant. When the Pew article shows us their worth with young people we find 18-30 is still above 60%. It goes up as the ages go up. What this tells us is, it's not slipping that far with the youth and it's not hopes that they will come back as they get older.

The actual figure (pew) of percentage of disaffected is 22% and that does represent a doubling of the 70s. The 70s were the "Jesus freak ear" the great revival the Charismatic movement began. We should not expect that to be the norm of participation of youth a religious tradition. So we really shouldn't care the current era to the 70s. There is cause for concern and the disaffection I would think is lately due to hypocrisy. There is always going to be hypocrisy in the chruch, the Regan era galvanized the fundamentalists for the right wing making it worse.

None of this indicates dying out of Christianity.

Here's an exchagne on my baord with a guy called "Ophir's Gopher"

OG
It's definitely morphing into something unrecognizable and far more liberal.

Meta:
I doubt that. O am I know it will eventually. Its' done it before. A Christian Palestine in 332 would n ot recognize a Christian from England in 1242, who would not recognize a Christian in Teas in 1852 who would not understand or recognize me and I believe.

There was a time when the average popular conception of Christianity was that you had to die for your faith to go to heaven. change is not death. It doesn't' matter how it changes the reality of God is there.

OG
That was my point all along. Perhaps these religions aren't dying. Maybe only the dogmatic/fundamentalist core is collapsing. either way, it's incredibly interesting to watch and certainly nothing to be threatened by or depressed about. This is a good thing, and I'm priveledged to see it happening.

Meta

Yea, I'll go along with that.

11 comments:

Rex said...

A couple things:

First of all, The Pew organization did a study and THEY missed a decimal point? Not you?

The next thing is, believe what you want (all of you Xtians are really good at that!), but the main stream American news agencies ALL report in the neighborhood of 15% to 17% answering NONE to questions about religious affiliation. That means that we get all of the nones, the agnostics, the atheists and the unaffiliateds. Look at them as "sects" of the godless, that might help you visualize it in a way that your religiobrain will understand! That, in turn means about 16% total. Sorry to bring facts into a discussion of religion again, but there they are........... unless all of the mainstream print and television journalists are wrong too! And you are the only one who has THE TRUTH......... again! Doesn't that EVER get old?

You do watch more than just Fox News right?

Lastly, as people age they are closer to and in many cases more fearful of death. They are just hedging their bets out of fear. They are obviously weak from fear and need the comfort of being able to switch off their brain and have faith take away their grasp of reality and hopefully, some of the anxiety. They make easy prey for your fear peddling charlatans, don't they?

It seems like that makes you proud.

It shouldn't, because preying on the weak is wrong, said the atheist.

Metacrock said...

First of all, The Pew organization did a study and THEY missed a decimal point? Not you?

NO genius the CARM Athesit I was qtuoeing missed it! you can see it printed in the study. The guy quoting the study said 16% the study said 1.6% of so obviously we should trust the study before we trust a guy on a message board.




The next thing is, believe what you want (all of you Xtians are really good at that!), but the main stream American news agencies ALL report in the neighborhood of 15% to 17% answering NONE to questions about religious affiliation.

religious affiliation is not the same as belief or disbelief in God. that mistake comes from not knowing theology. Also from wishful thinking. But it's that fail to distinguish that creates the whole mis conception. Atheist tend to blur the distinction between being a Christian and belief in God.

I said all this in my post why can't you read? Studies that make the distinction show real atheists, people don't believe n God of any kind, 3%. The rest ar those who believe in some kind of transcendent power but don't belong a rebellious group.





That means that we get all of the nones, the agnostics, the atheists and the unaffiliateds. Look at them as "sects" of the godless, that might help you visualize it in a way that your religiobrain will understand!

that's not onlky ridiculous but it mean atheist sloganism is a lie.

atheists define atheism as saying "there is no God or gods." "anyone who simpley lacks belief in God or gods." But how you say we should include some who believe in Gods so that there can be more atheits.

I've seen atheists try to count all Buddhists some try even have tried to counts Hindus! Hindus believe in thousands of Gods!

atheists are notorious for trying to jack up the stats becuase they can't stand being a little 3% marginalized group. Really most atheist believe in truth by popularity that's why ti's so much more important tot hem to inflate the stats.




That, in turn means about 16% total.

Yea with 13% believing in God.


Sorry to bring facts into a discussion of religion again, but there they are........... unless all of the mainstream print and television journalists are wrong too! And you are the only one who has THE TRUTH......... again! Doesn't that EVER get old?


making the same fallacious error and refusing to think about the real stats but inflating the figures to suit your ideology never gets old.

You do watch more than just Fox News right?


Have you ever taken a math class? you seem to understand nothing at all about statistics.

Lastly, as people age they are closer to and in many cases more fearful of death. They are just hedging their bets out of fear. They are obviously weak from fear and need the comfort of being able to switch off their brain and have faith take away their grasp of reality and hopefully, some of the anxiety. They make easy prey for your fear peddling charlatans, don't they?


that is a bigoted assertion not in evidence. Go get some data to back that up. It's also true that young people are fools and you grew some small semblance of brains by the time your old.

It seems like that makes you proud.

sorry man, I tried to avoid being mean but you are just an idiot. you are a narrow minded bigot, and your bigotry and lack of understanding blind you so that it doesn't even occur to you look at the things I actually say. you have it built up in your little brain washed brain that Christians have to be a certain way and when see one that's not your too blinde by your prejudice to even notice it.

Rex said...

Today's NY Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/24/us/24atheist.html (Yes I know how to make links, but this is easier for me!)

Excerpt: "The nation’s population continues to show signs of becoming less religious, according to the American Religious Identification Survey. The number of people in 2008 calling themselves atheist or agnostic, or stating no religious preference, is an estimated 15 percent, nearly double the percentage in the early 1990s."

I guess that the New York Times is wrong because this seems to contradict what the great Metacrock says. But then again, they don't have a PHD in Applied Denial do they?

You know what, just go ahead and call them stupid and brainwashed too, because that seems like all you know how to do.

Metacrock said...

Today's NY Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/24/us/24atheist.html (Yes I know how to make links, but this is easier for me!)

Excerpt: "The nation’s population continues to show signs of becoming less religious, according to the American Religious Identification Survey. The number of people in 2008 calling themselves atheist or agnostic, or stating no religious preference, is an estimated 15 percent, nearly double the percentage in the early 1990s."

you gonna keep making that same mistake aren't you? I've sen polls giving that same statistic for about 20 years now. The truth is "people still faithful" is not a news story.

or agnostic, or stating no religious preference

that "no religious preference" is not the same as "no belief in God." That means they don't wnat to call themselves a baptist or a Methodist or even a christian. But it's doubt that the whole 12% (minus 3% for real atheists) are going disassociate from Christian beliefs, they my not like the label Christian but still believe in Jesus.

even accepting it on face value that hardly signifies the death of Christianity. You are not even comparing it to growth in the third world.







I guess that the New York Times is wrong because this seems to contradict what the great Metacrock says. But then again, they don't have a PHD in Applied Denial do they?


Not actually it's right in line whith what I said all along.

3% actual atheists
3% agnostic
9% bleieve in God or higher power but no strict institutional identification.


You know what, just go ahead and call them stupid and brainwashed too, because that seems like all you know how to do.


have you read anything I said? do you ever say anything analytical? that's obviously and emotionally charged exaggeration.

Rex said...

15% without religious affiliation does NOT mean that you get to attribute all but to 3% a belief in god.

You yourself just said 3% atheist (you usually say 1.6%) and 3% agnostic, (that means that they don't know) that leaves 9% with no affiliation (that means NO AFFILIATION). So how do YOU get to decide that they automatically belong to the group that believes in fairy tales? Oh that's right, you don't!

Keep smoking whatever it is that you are smoking because it seems to be working for you.

It's reality ....... I don't think that you two have been introduced.

Metacrock said...

15% without religious affiliation does NOT mean that you get to attribute all but to 3% a belief in god.

Yes it does becasue I've researched it. that 15% has been a around for a while. quote your study and lets see if it says it differentiates?

You yourself just said 3% atheist (you usually say 1.6%) and 3% agnostic,

NO I don't Usually say that. I say Pew study said that. But I give them 3% for margin or error. others say 3% too.



(that means that they don't know) that leaves 9% with no affiliation (that means NO AFFILIATION).

there are studies which show 3% atheist, 3% agnostic and 9% believe in God or higher power but don't identify with a faith.


So how do YOU get to decide that they automatically belong to the group that believes in fairy tales? Oh that's right, you don't!


becasue the research has showen that for a long time.


Keep smoking whatever it is that you are smoking because it seems to be working for you.




It's reality ....... I don't think that you two have been introduced.

cute. keep making stupid jokes but don't quiet day job.

Rex said...

Well, the idea of the 9% unaffiliated being summarily attributed to a belief in god is very offensive to me personally, as well as being against my personal experience. I certainly did not fit that example when I was in the unaffiliated category for two decades. I have been an atheist all of my life, but only in the last couple of years have I been able to "come out" of the unaffiliated category and say to everyone that I know that I am an atheist, and have always been.

All of the people that I know personally who belong to the unaffiliated group are closet atheists. Like it was for me, they are not ready to confront the stigma attached to the word atheist.

So in my personal experience, unaffiliated means closet atheist. They are just afraid to come out because of condescension and the discrimination and the hate pointed at them (sound familiar?).

Unaffiliated is much safer.

Besides, why would someone who believes in fairy tales stay in the unaffiliated group, there are so many sects, surely they could find a group that believes in the same flavor of wackiness. There is no motivation for that group to stay unaffiliated, but there certainly is motivation for the closeted atheists to stay that way.

Metacrock said...

Well, the idea of the 9% unaffiliated being summarily attributed to a belief in god is very offensive to me personally, as well as being against my personal experience. I certainly did not fit that example when I was in the unaffiliated category for two decades. I have been an atheist all of my life, but only in the last couple of years have I been able to "come out" of the unaffiliated category and say to everyone that I know that I am an atheist, and have always been.


what I said is a fact. it is not a matter feelings, it doesn't matter how either of us feels aboutit. It's a fact of the data. The 9% bleieve in God because they answer the question "Do you bleiev ein a higher power of any knid" with "yes, I do. I just don't like religion." so it's not up to you. do you not get it?

don't contradict yourself, for years atheists squwak "atheism is just a lack of bleief nothing more." now you say "but I want to include these guys because I hate religoin so much I have to feel that my sides is frwoing so let me coutn them?

no they believe in God so they are not atheists get it?

they said they do. by their own words.

your feelings are to determinate of the universe, they are only your feelings. stop using anecdotes to answer data.


All of the people that I know personally who belong to the unaffiliated group are closet atheists. Like it was for me, they are not ready to confront the stigma attached to the word atheist.


they didn't answer the poll did they? that is anecdotal. Besides I know 10x more unaffiliated than you do and they all believe in God.

So in my personal experience, unaffiliated means closet atheist.

that is a violation of the canons of science.

Metacrock said...

Besides, why would someone who believes in fairy tales stay in the unaffiliated group,

BEAGGING QUESTION!



there are so many sects, surely they could find a group that believes in the same flavor of wackiness. There is no motivation for that group to stay unaffiliated, but there certainly is motivation for the closeted atheists to stay that way.


now you are just whining

Rex said...

Hey mister "I claim all of the unaffiliated believe in god". Here is a pretty interesting article from, of all places the Huffington Post.

It states very clearly that if you remove the labels atheist and agnostic, 18% of the people in this country profess no belief in god. It is as I said, the labels carry so much stigma in this loving god filled utopia that you love, that people are afraid to use the labels.

Oh yeah, if you want to quibble and deny the stats, take it up with them, I am merely passing it along.

If your religobrain can stand to read something other than a pro religious article without exploding, you should read the whole thing. It is exactly what I have been saying. Religion is losing the war, and the world will be better off for it.

Metacrock said...

I have four studies that sshow atheism is between 1.6 and 3%. These are much better studies than the one you give because they are by better polling organizations such as Gallop and they have bigger data bases.

your study is by a very biased raving atheist. It also doesn't' distinguish between those who don't believe in God and those who are merely pissed at religion but do believe in a higher power.